How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.