🔗 Share this article

In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the role in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is occurring in France, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”